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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd